Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane HECTOR


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 18 2006

TRMM AND AQUA MICROWAVE PASSES FROM AROUND 1000 UTC SHOW THAT THE
EYEWALL OF HECTOR HAS BECOME OPEN IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS ALSO BECOME DEGRADED WITH
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN LOOKING A LITTLE ASYMMETRIC.  T-NUMBERS FROM
SAB/TAFB HAVE DROPPED A LITTLE AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
85 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST APPEARS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD. 
THE CYCLONE WILL SOON BE PASSING THE 26.5C ISOTHERM WHICH SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING.  IN ADDITION VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH WOULD
ALSO HELP WEAKEN THE HURRICANE.  SHIPS WEAKENS HECTOR RATHER
QUICKLY IN THE SHORT-TERM COMPARED TO SIX HOURS AGO... WHICH MAY BE
A BIT TOO FAST DUE TO DIAGNOSED SHEAR VALUES THAT APPEARS TO BE
OVERESTIMATED.  ON THE OTHER HAND... GFDL HOLDS ONTO HECTOR AS A
HURRICANE FOR 2 DAYS WHICH SEEMS WAY TOO HIGH.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE SHIPS...WHICH PROBABLY HAS THE
RIGHT IDEA...AND AGREES WELL WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE... ABOUT 290/12. 
THE HURRICANE REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF A MIDDLE-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER MEXICO.  HECTOR COULD TURN A LITTLE MORE TO
THE NORTHWEST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE NOGAPS AND UKMET ARE ON TWO EXTREMES OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... WITH THE NOGAPS PLOWING HECTOR
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALMOST IMMEDIATELY...
WHILE THE UKMET IS SEEMINGLY UNAFFECTED AND CONTINUES MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE BIT
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.  

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/1500Z 16.1N 125.8W    85 KT
 12HR VT     19/0000Z 16.9N 127.4W    80 KT
 24HR VT     19/1200Z 17.8N 129.2W    70 KT
 36HR VT     20/0000Z 18.7N 130.8W    60 KT
 48HR VT     20/1200Z 19.6N 132.3W    45 KT
 72HR VT     21/1200Z 21.0N 134.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     22/1200Z 22.0N 137.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     23/1200Z 22.5N 140.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:42 UTC