Hurricane HECTOR

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HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 18 2006

TRMM AND AQUA MICROWAVE PASSES FROM AROUND 1000 UTC SHOW THAT THE
EYEWALL OF HECTOR HAS BECOME OPEN IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS ALSO BECOME DEGRADED WITH
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN LOOKING A LITTLE ASYMMETRIC.  T-NUMBERS FROM
SAB/TAFB HAVE DROPPED A LITTLE AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
85 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST APPEARS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD. 
THE CYCLONE WILL SOON BE PASSING THE 26.5C ISOTHERM WHICH SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING.  IN ADDITION VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH WOULD
ALSO HELP WEAKEN THE HURRICANE.  SHIPS WEAKENS HECTOR RATHER
QUICKLY IN THE SHORT-TERM COMPARED TO SIX HOURS AGO... WHICH MAY BE
A BIT TOO FAST DUE TO DIAGNOSED SHEAR VALUES THAT APPEARS TO BE
OVERESTIMATED.  ON THE OTHER HAND... GFDL HOLDS ONTO HECTOR AS A
HURRICANE FOR 2 DAYS WHICH SEEMS WAY TOO HIGH.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE SHIPS...WHICH PROBABLY HAS THE
RIGHT IDEA...AND AGREES WELL WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE... ABOUT 290/12. 
THE HURRICANE REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF A MIDDLE-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER MEXICO.  HECTOR COULD TURN A LITTLE MORE TO
THE NORTHWEST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE NOGAPS AND UKMET ARE ON TWO EXTREMES OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... WITH THE NOGAPS PLOWING HECTOR
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALMOST IMMEDIATELY...
WHILE THE UKMET IS SEEMINGLY UNAFFECTED AND CONTINUES MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE BIT
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.  

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/1500Z 16.1N 125.8W    85 KT
 12HR VT     19/0000Z 16.9N 127.4W    80 KT
 24HR VT     19/1200Z 17.8N 129.2W    70 KT
 36HR VT     20/0000Z 18.7N 130.8W    60 KT
 48HR VT     20/1200Z 19.6N 132.3W    45 KT
 72HR VT     21/1200Z 21.0N 134.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     22/1200Z 22.0N 137.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     23/1200Z 22.5N 140.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB
 
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