Tropical Storm HECTOR

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TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
200 AM PDT THU AUG 17 2006
 
INFRARED IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH HECTOR HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER
THAN -80C NOW CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE NOW 65 KT FROM TAFB...AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 290/9...ALTHOUGH A WESTWARD JOG MAY BE
UNDERWAY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  HECTOR IS ON THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES...MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR 25N130W. 
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS GENERAL PATTERN TO PERSIST FOR
72 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH N OF 25N W OF 125W.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP HECTOR
MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 72 HR...WITH A MORE
NORTHWARD MOTION LIKELY THEREAFTER.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS
FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET WHICH
KEEPS MORE RIDGING NORTH OF HECTOR AND THUS CONTINUES TO FORECAST A
MORE WESTWARD MOTION.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION...LYING ALONG
THE LEFT EDGE OF THE MAIN GUIDANCE CLUSTER.  IT IS ALSO A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

HECTOR REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR...AND IT IS APPROACHING AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS
THAT EXISTS BETWEEN UPPER-LEVEL HIGHS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND AND 16N134W.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THIS DUAL-HIGH PATTERN WILL BE REPLACED BY A SINGLE
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH NEAR OR OVER HECTOR IN 24-48 HR...WHICH WOULD
DECREASE THE SHEAR.  HOWEVER...BY THAT TIME HECTOR SHOULD BE MOVING
OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THE SHIPS MODEL RESPONDS TO
THESE CONDITIONS BY FORECASTING STEADY WEAKENING...WHILE THE GFDL
CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO 75 KT IN 24-36 HR FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING. 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE GFDL FOR THE FIRST 24
HR...WITH HECTOR FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.  IT
THEN FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  AFTER 72-96 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR DUE TO THE DEVELOPING MID/
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  SHOULD THIS OCCUR...HECTOR COULD WEAKEN FASTER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0900Z 14.5N 119.6W    60 KT
 12HR VT     17/1800Z 15.0N 121.0W    70 KT
 24HR VT     18/0600Z 15.8N 123.0W    75 KT
 36HR VT     18/1800Z 16.6N 125.0W    70 KT
 48HR VT     19/0600Z 17.4N 127.1W    60 KT
 72HR VT     20/0600Z 19.5N 130.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     21/0600Z 21.0N 133.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     22/0600Z 23.0N 135.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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