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Tropical Depression NINE-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 15 2006
 
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES
INDICATE THAT T.D. NINE-E HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS.  ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30
KT.  A RECENT TRMM PASS INDICATED A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER...IMPLYING SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  THE SHIPS MODEL
INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RESTRICT STRENGTHENING GIVEN
AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
MODEST STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HOURS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS
AND GFDL MODEL RUNS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS RESULTING IN GRADUAL WEAKENING. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/13...ESSENTIALLY RIGHT ALONG
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED ON
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 48 HOUR AS IT
MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  BEYOND 48
HOURS...A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY
BETWEEN 125W AND 135W WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL TURN MORE
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON
THIS SOLUTION SAVE THE UKMET WHICH MAINTAINS A STRONGER RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A MORE WESTWARD MOTION.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL
MODELS RESULTING IN ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0300Z 13.3N 115.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     16/1200Z 13.5N 117.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     17/0000Z 14.0N 119.6W    45 KT
 36HR VT     17/1200Z 14.7N 121.6W    55 KT
 48HR VT     18/0000Z 15.8N 123.5W    65 KT
 72HR VT     19/0000Z 17.8N 127.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     20/0000Z 20.0N 130.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     21/0000Z 22.0N 134.5W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:42 UTC