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Tropical Depression NINE-E
ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 15 2006
THE WELL DEFINED LOW WHICH BEEN TRACKED FOR THE PAST DAY OR TWO HAS
ATTAINED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...THE NINTH OF THE SEASON IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 AND 30 KT RESPECTIVELY
FROM SAB AND TAFB AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 30 KT.
MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
CIRCULATION CENTER MAY BE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND...DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE VERTICAL
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY AND BRINGS THE
CYCLONE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS. BY 96 HOURS...THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND
STEADILY WEAKEN.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/12. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE
STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CURRENTLY BETWEEN 125W AND 130W IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT WESTWARD...ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD
IN 2-3 DAYS. BASED ON THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION...THE FORECAST
TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER AND ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 24-48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE TRACK
REMAINS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE CONU MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/2100Z 13.0N 114.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 13.4N 115.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 13.9N 117.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 14.3N 119.6W 55 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 15.1N 121.6W 65 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 17.1N 125.3W 65 KT
96HR VT 19/1800Z 19.5N 129.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 20/1800Z 22.0N 133.0W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART
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