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Tropical Depression GILMA


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082006
800 PM PDT WED AUG 02 2006

GILMA LOOKS RATHER DISORGANIZED TONIGHT WITH AN EXPOSED CENTER ON
THE EAST SIDE AND A NOTICEABLE LACK OF CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES. 
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
WEAKENING EFFECTS OF PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR ARE SOMEWHAT
BALANCED BY WARM SSTS.  THEREAFTER...COOLING SSTS SHOULD FINISH OFF
WHAT'S LEFT OF THE CYCLONE.  IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THE
POSSIBILITY THAT GILMA COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN FORECAST IF THE
CONVECTION DOES NOT REFIRE NEAR THE CENTER.  

THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION..
CURRENTLY 295/7...DUE TO WEAK MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. 
SYNOPTIC REASONING IS THE SAME AS BEFORE WITH A BUILDING RIDGE
FORECAST OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO.. WHICH SHOULD ALLOW GILMA TO MOVE
MORE TO THE NORTHWEST IN A DAY OR SO WITH SOME ACCELERATION.  THE
TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS... AND FOLLOWS BAM
SHALLOW CLOSELY AFTER 2 DAYS ANTICIPATING THE CYCLONE'S DEMISE.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0300Z 15.4N 107.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     03/1200Z 15.8N 108.7W    30 KT
 24HR VT     04/0000Z 16.6N 110.2W    30 KT
 36HR VT     04/1200Z 17.6N 111.6W    30 KT
 48HR VT     05/0000Z 18.5N 113.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     06/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     07/0000Z 20.5N 117.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     08/0000Z 20.5N 120.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:42 UTC