Tropical Depression EIGHT-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082006
800 PM PDT MON JUL 31 2006

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME
SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO BE UPGRADED TO A 30 KT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY UNANIMOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR AND THE
CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE EAST SIDE OF AN AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SHEAR MAY RELAX A BIT
ALLOWING THE CYCLONE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE DEPRESSION
WILL BE NEARING COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE AIR MASS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 280/9. THE CYCLONE IS
CURRENTLY BEING STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO BUT THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS
CREATING ERRATIC SHORT-TERM MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
THE CYCLONE CONTINUING TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A BROAD TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. SOME
OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INCREASED
RIDGING WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WHILE OTHER MODELS
SHOW THE TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES
THE TROUGH WILL LIFT SUFFICIENTLY NORTH TO ALLOW A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARDS THE WEST. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0300Z 12.7N 104.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     01/1200Z 13.1N 106.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     02/0000Z 13.7N 107.7W    40 KT
 36HR VT     02/1200Z 14.3N 109.4W    45 KT
 48HR VT     03/0000Z 14.7N 111.7W    50 KT
 72HR VT     04/0000Z 15.0N 115.3W    50 KT
 96HR VT     05/0000Z 16.1N 119.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     06/0000Z 18.0N 122.5W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN
 
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