Tropical Depression FABIO

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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072006
200 AM PDT THU AUG 03 2006
 
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEPRESSION AS AN EXPOSED
SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION ABOUT 120 NMI
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30
KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A 0330 QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.  AS ABUNDANT 
DRY STABLE AIR AFFECTS THE CYCLONE...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF INTERMITTENT FLARE-UPS OF
THUNDERSTORMS.  HOWEVER IF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DOES NOT
REGENERATE AGAIN...THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER
TODAY.   

FABIO IS CONTINUING ON A WESTERLY TRACK AT 275/15...SANDWICHED
BETWEEN A STRONG MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO ITS NORTH AND A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST TAKES
THE CYCLONE...OR REMNANT LOW...ON A WESTERLY TRACK UNTIL
DISSIPATION OCCURS.  THIS FOLLOWS MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
WHICH DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE IN 72 HOURS.  THE NOGAPS MODEL IS THE
ONLY OUTLIER WHICH KEEPS THE CYCLONE INTACT THROUGH 5 DAYS.  
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0900Z 15.2N 135.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     03/1800Z 15.4N 138.4W    30 KT
 24HR VT     04/0600Z 15.4N 141.6W    25 KT
 36HR VT     04/1800Z 15.5N 144.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     05/0600Z 15.5N 148.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA
 
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