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Tropical Depression FABIO


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072006
800 PM PDT WED AUG 02 2006
 
THE CENTER OF FABIO IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED TONIGHT WITH ONLY A BURST
OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT FABIO IS NOW A DEPRESSION AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 30 KT. ANY CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER
IS EXPECTED TO BE TEMPORARY DUE TO PLENTY OF DRY STABLE AIR AND
EASTERLY WIND SHEAR. A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN IS ANTICIPATED AND SHOULD
BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED IN A COUPLE DAYS AS STRONGER SOUTHERLY SHEAR
HITS THE CYCLONE. IF NEW BURSTS OF CONVECTION DO NOT OCCUR...THE
SYSTEM MAY BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN SHOWN HERE.
 
THE LAST SIX HOURS OF MOTION HAVE FABIO RIGHT ON TRACK... 275
DEGREES... AT A LITTLE FASTER RATE OF 15 KT.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY FASTER THAN EARLIER TODAY SEEMINGLY DUE TO A RATHER
STRONG MIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH NORTHEAST OF HAWAII.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST ALSO IS FASTER AND CLOSE TO CONU...TAKING THE SYSTEM
SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0300Z 15.3N 134.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     03/1200Z 15.5N 136.7W    30 KT
 24HR VT     04/0000Z 15.6N 140.1W    30 KT
 36HR VT     04/1200Z 15.8N 143.4W    30 KT
 48HR VT     05/0000Z 16.0N 146.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     06/0000Z 16.0N 153.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC