Tropical Storm FABIO

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TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072006
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006
 
FABIO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 45 KT FROM TAFB 
AND 35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY 
WILL REMAIN 35 KT. FOR THE FIRST 24 TO 48 HOURS...FABIO IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SHIPS MODEL
INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE ENTERING A DRIER MID LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. MOST OF THE GLOBAL 
MODELS SUGGEST THAT FABIO COULD WEAKEN OR EVEN DISSIPATE SOONER
THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE INTENSITY 
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT
INDICATES A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING LATER IN THE FORECAST...
SHOWING SOME RESPECT FOR THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/12. FABIO IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN ON A STEADY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING SOUTH OF A
STRONG MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENS
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT WILL LIKELY BE STEERED MORE
WESTWARD AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS.  THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS CLOSE TO 
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0900Z 14.8N 124.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     01/1800Z 15.2N 126.4W    40 KT
 24HR VT     02/0600Z 15.7N 129.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     02/1800Z 16.2N 131.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     03/0600Z 16.5N 134.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     04/0600Z 16.5N 138.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     05/0600Z 16.5N 143.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     06/0600Z 16.5N 148.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART
 
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