Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm EMILIA


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006               
2100 UTC SAT JUL 22 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)  18(25)  14(39)   1(40)   X(40)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   6(11)   1(12)   X(12)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  15(21)  13(34)   1(35)   X(35)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)  13(22)   2(24)   X(24)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   X(10)
 
BAHIA KINO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   6(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   5( 5)   5(10)   2(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  1  10(11)   2(13)   2(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
MANZANILLO     34  1   4( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)  13(21)   9(30)   2(32)   X(32)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   4( 4)  12(16)   5(21)   3(24)   X(24)   X(24)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 178N 1054W 34 49  18(67)   2(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
 12 178N 1054W 50 10   7(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 12 178N 1054W 64  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 24 192N 1068W 34  1  51(52)  14(66)   2(68)   1(69)   X(69)   X(69)
 24 192N 1068W 50  X  16(16)  10(26)   2(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 24 192N 1068W 64  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
 36 203N 1087W 34  X   6( 6)  46(52)  13(65)   4(69)   1(70)   X(70)
 36 203N 1087W 50  X   1( 1)  19(20)   9(29)   2(31)   1(32)   X(32)
 36 203N 1087W 64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
 48 209N 1102W 34  X   1( 1)  25(26)  25(51)  12(63)   1(64)   X(64)
 48 209N 1102W 50  X   X( X)   5( 5)  15(20)   8(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 48 209N 1102W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   4(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
 
 72 223N 1126W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)  25(41)   6(47)   X(47)
 72 223N 1126W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   3(17)   X(17)
 72 223N 1126W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 
 
 96 245N 1155W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  11(19)   2(21)
 96 245N 1155W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 96 245N 1155W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 265N 1190W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
120 265N 1190W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
120 265N 1190W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     45     55      65      75      70      50      30
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC