Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm EMILIA


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006
 
EMILIA'S WEAKENING HAS...FOR THE TIME BEING...HALTED AS MORE
PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THIS EVENING. 
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BOTH AT
3.0 OR 45 KT.  THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES AT 320/06.  BASED UPON
SHIP DGGV AT 06Z TO THE NORTHEAST OF EMILIA...THE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WERE ANALYZED TO HAVE EXPANDED OUTWARD SLIGHTLY.

USUALLY...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TO THE NORTH OF
THE TROPICAL STORM WOULD INDUCE A MORE WESTWARD MOVEMENT THAN IS
FOUND WITH EMILIA.  HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL STORM IS SITUATED ON THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID- TO LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
GYRE...WHICH HAS BEEN HELPING TO PUSH THE STORM IN A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION.  AS EMILIA CONTINUES TO ROUND THE WEAKENING GYRE...ALONG
WITH A CONTINUED STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH...EMILIA'S TRACK SHOULD 
BEND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN ABOUT TWO DAYS.  THE FORECAST TRACK
IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE EARLIER PREDICTION...BUT NOT AS
CLOSE TO BAJA CALIFORNIA AS THE GFDL MODEL IS SUGGESTING.  

WHILE THE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY WEAK AND SSTS ARE A WARM 27C...EMILIA
IS MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SHORTLY.  THE
STORM MAY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY SOME DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HR BEFORE MOVING OVER 23C WATERS IN TWO DAYS TIME.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS SHIPS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION.
 
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF EMILIA ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...RAINBANDS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THAT AREA FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0900Z 20.2N 111.0W    45 KT
 12HR VT     25/1800Z 21.3N 111.9W    50 KT
 24HR VT     26/0600Z 22.9N 113.3W    45 KT
 36HR VT     26/1800Z 24.3N 115.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     27/0600Z 25.2N 116.7W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     28/0600Z 26.0N 119.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC