Tropical Storm EMILIA

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TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006
200 AM PDT MON JUL 24 2006
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE ORGANIZATION OF EMILIA OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. 
ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 60 KT BASED ON
CONSENSUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES.
EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW WILL INCREASE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THIS MAY ALREADY BE TAKING PLACE. ACCORDINGLY...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
STRENGTHENING SHUTS AS THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE AIRMASS.
THESE TWO NEGATIVE FACTORS SHOULD BRING ABOUT RAPID WEAKENING WITH
EMILIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS AND DISSIPATE
BY 120 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING WEAKER BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS CONTINUITY
BASED ON THE INCREASING OUTFLOW.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285/8. THE
STEERING IS DOMINATED BY A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE
THAT EMILIA WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
RIDGE. AN ALTERNATIVE SOLUTION IS PROVIDED BY THE GFDL AND CANADIAN
MODELS WHICH SHOW A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION DUE TO A STRONGER
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SOUTHEAST OF EMILIA. HOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE MODELS
FAIL TO SHOW THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SO IT IS ASSUMED
THAT THE LATTER RIDGE IS ALREADY TOO STRONG WITHIN THESE MODELS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE REMAINING
GUIDANCE AND IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0900Z 18.4N 109.7W    60 KT
 12HR VT     24/1800Z 18.8N 110.8W    65 KT
 24HR VT     25/0600Z 19.8N 112.3W    80 KT
 36HR VT     25/1800Z 20.8N 113.7W    80 KT
 48HR VT     26/0600Z 21.8N 115.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     27/0600Z 23.8N 118.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     28/0600Z 25.5N 121.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
 
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