Tropical Storm EMILIA

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TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006
 
EARLIER THIS EVENING...VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
SUGGESTED THAT EMILIA WAS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE DIURNAL
MINIMUM...WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND
OVER THE OUTER BANDING FEATURES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY NOW DEPICTS A MORE IMPRESSIVE
OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN WITH COLDER TOPS OF -70C AND AND A STRONG
BANDING FEATURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55
KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...WITH A UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF 61 KT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 60 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
FOREGOING AND THE RECENT BANDING DEVELOPMENT. DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO...EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND
WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION REVEALS
IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANTS. AFTER 36 HOURS OR SO...EMILIA SHOULD BE MOVING OVER
COOLER WATERS AND THROUGH A NOT SO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT.  THIS SHOULD TRIGGER A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH DAY 5.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/7...JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...WITH A SHORT-TERM MOTION MORE LIKE DUE
WEST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE STRETCHING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND
THE BAJA PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE DURING
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE GROUPED INTO TWO
CLUSTERS. ONE CLUSTER...WHICH INCLUDES THE GFS/GFDL/ECMWF/GFDN...
SUGGESTS A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE OTHER GROUPING...CONSISTING OF THE
UKMET/NOGAPS/FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND...ODDLY...THE GFS ENSEMBLE...
INDICATES A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING FLOW DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0300Z 18.2N 108.8W    60 KT
 12HR VT     24/1200Z 18.6N 109.9W    70 KT
 24HR VT     25/0000Z 19.4N 111.3W    85 KT
 36HR VT     25/1200Z 20.4N 112.7W    85 KT
 48HR VT     26/0000Z 21.4N 114.0W    70 KT
 72HR VT     27/0000Z 23.5N 117.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     28/0000Z 25.0N 119.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     29/0000Z 27.0N 122.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN
 
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