Tropical Storm EMILIA

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TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006
 
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND BOTH
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE EMILIA HAS
BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
55 KT BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 FROM TAFB...A
DATA T-NUMBER OF T3.5 FROM SAB...AND A UW-CIMSS 3-H AVERAGE ADT OF
T3.6/57 KT.
 
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION AND FORWARD
MOTION OF EMILIA...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE IS 300/09 KT BASED ON
LIMITED MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA. A LARGE AND RATHER STOUT MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
AND EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MEXICO IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT BASICALLY REMAIN INTACT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. AS SUCH...THE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY DEEP-LAYER STEERING FLOW
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP EMILIA MOVING IN A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. THE  MAJORITY OF
THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE
EXCEPTIONS ARE THE GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS WHICH TAKE EMILIA
QUICKLY WESTWARD FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION...WHICH SEEMS RATHER
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL.

NOW THAT CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND RECENT AMSU AND
AMSR MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE AN EYEWALL WAS FORMING...EMILIA IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE THAN PAST TRENDS HAVE BEEN.
IN FACT...THE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...IMPROVING OUTFLOW PATTERN IN
ALL QUADRANTS...AND NEAR-30C SSTS SUGGEST THAT EMILIA MAY BEGIN A
PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. THE
RESULT WOULD BE A STRONGER CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO EMILIA MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATER. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/1500Z 18.1N 107.4W    55 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 18.8N 108.5W    65 KT
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 19.5N 110.1W    75 KT
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 20.2N 111.5W    80 KT
 48HR VT     25/1200Z 20.9N 113.0W    80 KT
 72HR VT     26/1200Z 22.3N 115.7W    55 KT
 96HR VT     27/1200Z 24.0N 118.5W    35 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     28/1200Z 26.0N 121.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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