Tropical Storm EMILIA

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TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006
 
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO CONFIDENTLY LOCATE THE CENTER OF EMILIA THIS
EVENING...BUT I BELIEVE IT TO BE LOCATED VERY NEAR THE NORTHEAST
EDGE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION...A POSITION ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  TRMM AND SSMI PASSES WITHIN
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS DO NOT SHOW AS MUCH STRUCTURE IN THE LOW
CLOUD LINES AS THOSE FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY.  GIVEN THE LACK OF
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT EMILIA HAS
STRENGTHENED ANY.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35-45
KT...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 40 KT. 
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR STILL APPEARS TO BE HINDERING DEVELOPMENT...BUT
ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT EMILIA WILL BE MOVING INTO A
MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO.  IN FACT...THE UKMET FORECAST 200 MB WINDS...COUPLED WITH THE
30C WATERS...WOULD FAVOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  THE
GFDL...SHIPS...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE ALL PROJECTING EMILIA TO
REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 HOURS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.  THE REGION OF FAVORABLE UPPER FLOW IS SMALL HOWEVER...SO
IF EMILIA MOVES SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
ITS DEVELOPMENT COULD BE DELAYED.  AFTER 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 330/10.  EMILIA APPEARS TO BE
MAKING THE FORECAST NORTHWESTWARD TURN...AND I DO NOT EXPECT IT TO
GET A LOT CLOSER TO THE MEXICAN COAST THAN IT ALREADY IS. 
CONSEQUENTLY...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH...WHICH MEANS THAT STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOT EXPECTED...STILL APPEARS TO BE THE
APPROPRIATE STATEMENT AT THIS TIME.   SHOULD EMILIA MOVE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK OR DEVELOP MORE RAPIDLY THAN
EXPECTED...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE WATCH AREA AS
EARLY AS TOMORROW MORNING.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS MUCH THE SAME AS
BEFORE...WITH THE GFS TAKING A VERY WEAK SYSTEM SHARPLY
WESTWARD...AND THE UKMET TAKING EMILIA WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE OF 
THE WATCH AREA AS WELL AS BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE GFDL HAS AN ODD
TRACK...RESEMBLING THE GFS EARLY AND THE UKMET LATE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND ON THE
RIGHT-HAND SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. 

  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0300Z 17.4N 105.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 18.5N 106.3W    45 KT
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 19.7N 108.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 20.5N 109.5W    65 KT
 48HR VT     25/0000Z 21.2N 111.0W    75 KT
 72HR VT     26/0000Z 23.0N 114.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     27/0000Z 24.5N 116.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     28/0000Z 26.0N 120.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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