Tropical Depression SIX-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006
 
THE FINAL VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE EVENING SHOW THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION TO THE NORTHEAST OF A SMALL BUT INTENSE AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS.  CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE SEEN RAPIDLY MOVING FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST IN THE CYCLONE'S ENVIRONMENT... A SIGN OF
THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  DVORAK ESTIMATES DO SUPPORT A SMALL
INCREASE IN STRENGTH DUE TO THE CLOSENESS OF THE CENTER TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW 30 KT.
 
COMPUTER MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH THE SHEAR WILL RELAX OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  SHIPS... OFF THE GFS FIELDS... SHOWS A
LESSENING OF THE SHEAR WITHIN 24 HOURS AND CONSQUENTLY BRINGS
THE DEPRESSION TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 2 DAYS.  THE UKMET ALSO
SHOWS THE SHEAR DECREASING IN A DAY OR SO.  HOWEVER... THE GFDL HAS
A MORE PESSIMISTIC VIEW...WITH THE CYCLONE BARELY REACHING STORM
INTENSITY IN 48 HOURS.  THE NOGAPS ALSO KEEPS THE SHEARING
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW QUICKLY THE SHEAR MAY RELAX...ONLY A SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS
SHOWN.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
USES A BLEND OF THE GFDL/SHIPS GUIDANCE.
 
THE PAST 6-12 HOUR MOTION HAS BEEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ABOUT
340/6. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND ACCELERATE A
LITTLE WITHIN 24 HOURS AS IT BUTTS UP AGAINST A MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER MEXICO. THE FORECAST IS MOST SIMILAR TO THE NOGAPS... WHICH
APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE INITIAL POSITION OF THE
DEPRESSION AND A REASONABLE EVOLUTION OF THE FORECAST FIELDS.
BEYOND 72 HOURS...I AM HESITANT TO SHOW ANY TURN MORE TO THE
NORTH...LIKE THE GFDL SHOWS...GIVEN THE GLOBAL MODELS' FORECAST OF
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. IT IS ALSO RATHER
RARE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES TO AFFECT BAJA CALIFORNIA IN JULY.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0300Z 13.4N 103.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     22/1200Z 14.1N 104.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     23/0000Z 15.4N 105.4W    35 KT
 36HR VT     23/1200Z 16.3N 107.0W    40 KT
 48HR VT     24/0000Z 17.3N 108.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     25/0000Z 19.0N 111.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     26/0000Z 20.5N 113.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     27/0000Z 22.5N 116.0W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
 
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