ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006 THE FINAL VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE EVENING SHOW THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION TO THE NORTHEAST OF A SMALL BUT INTENSE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS. CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE SEEN RAPIDLY MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST IN THE CYCLONE'S ENVIRONMENT... A SIGN OF THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK ESTIMATES DO SUPPORT A SMALL INCREASE IN STRENGTH DUE TO THE CLOSENESS OF THE CENTER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW 30 KT. COMPUTER MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH THE SHEAR WILL RELAX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHIPS... OFF THE GFS FIELDS... SHOWS A LESSENING OF THE SHEAR WITHIN 24 HOURS AND CONSQUENTLY BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 2 DAYS. THE UKMET ALSO SHOWS THE SHEAR DECREASING IN A DAY OR SO. HOWEVER... THE GFDL HAS A MORE PESSIMISTIC VIEW...WITH THE CYCLONE BARELY REACHING STORM INTENSITY IN 48 HOURS. THE NOGAPS ALSO KEEPS THE SHEARING CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THE SHEAR MAY RELAX...ONLY A SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND USES A BLEND OF THE GFDL/SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE PAST 6-12 HOUR MOTION HAS BEEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ABOUT 340/6. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND ACCELERATE A LITTLE WITHIN 24 HOURS AS IT BUTTS UP AGAINST A MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THE FORECAST IS MOST SIMILAR TO THE NOGAPS... WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE INITIAL POSITION OF THE DEPRESSION AND A REASONABLE EVOLUTION OF THE FORECAST FIELDS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...I AM HESITANT TO SHOW ANY TURN MORE TO THE NORTH...LIKE THE GFDL SHOWS...GIVEN THE GLOBAL MODELS' FORECAST OF STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. IT IS ALSO RATHER RARE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES TO AFFECT BAJA CALIFORNIA IN JULY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 13.4N 103.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 14.1N 104.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 15.4N 105.4W 35 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 16.3N 107.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 24/0000Z 17.3N 108.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 25/0000Z 19.0N 111.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 26/0000Z 20.5N 113.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 27/0000Z 22.5N 116.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC