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Hurricane DANIEL


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  27                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006               
1500 UTC SUN JUL 23 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
115 KTS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR.                                      
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   7(12)   4(16)   X(16)
15N 145W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  11(15)   7(22)   1(23)
20N 145W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
BUOY 50004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 154N 1373W 34 98   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 154N 1373W 50 83   7(90)   1(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
 12 154N 1373W 64 50  15(65)   1(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
 
 24 159N 1391W 34 35  53(88)   5(93)   1(94)   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)
 24 159N 1391W 50  3  54(57)   7(64)   2(66)   1(67)   X(67)   X(67)
 24 159N 1391W 64  X  29(29)   9(38)   1(39)   1(40)   X(40)   X(40)
 
 36 163N 1404W 34  2  52(54)  22(76)   5(81)   2(83)   1(84)   X(84)
 36 163N 1404W 50  X  16(16)  24(40)   7(47)   2(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 36 163N 1404W 64  X   5( 5)  15(20)   4(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
 48 168N 1418W 34  1  13(14)  30(44)  15(59)   8(67)   1(68)   1(69)
 48 168N 1418W 50  X   2( 2)  12(14)  12(26)   5(31)   1(32)   X(32)
 48 168N 1418W 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
 
 72 178N 1440W 34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)  14(21)  17(38)   6(44)   1(45)
 72 178N 1440W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   8(12)   2(14)   X(14)
 72 178N 1440W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
 
 96 190N 1475W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  10(16)   3(19)
 96 190N 1475W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 96 190N 1475W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
 
120 200N 1525W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
120 200N 1525W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 200N 1525W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND    105     95      85      75      65      55      45
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART                                                   
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC