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Hurricane DANIEL


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  22                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006               
0900 UTC SAT JUL 22 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/HR.                                      
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 141N 1313W 34 98   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 141N 1313W 50 91   5(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
 12 141N 1313W 64 72  11(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 
 24 145N 1332W 34 29  59(88)   6(94)   X(94)   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)
 24 145N 1332W 50  4  64(68)   9(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
 24 145N 1332W 64  1  44(45)  10(55)   1(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
 
 36 149N 1348W 34  2  41(43)  33(76)   4(80)   2(82)   1(83)   X(83)
 36 149N 1348W 50  X  15(15)  35(50)   5(55)   2(57)   X(57)   X(57)
 36 149N 1348W 64  X   6( 6)  24(30)   4(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
 48 152N 1360W 34  1  11(12)  38(50)  12(62)   6(68)   1(69)   X(69)
 48 152N 1360W 50  X   2( 2)  21(23)  10(33)   5(38)   X(38)   1(39)
 48 152N 1360W 64  X   X( X)  10(10)   8(18)   2(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
 
 72 160N 1380W 34  X   1( 1)  11(12)  13(25)  12(37)   4(41)   1(42)
 72 160N 1380W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   6(13)   2(15)   X(15)
 72 160N 1380W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 96 175N 1395W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   9(15)   5(20)   1(21)
 96 175N 1395W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 96 175N 1395W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 200N 1425W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
120 200N 1425W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 200N 1425W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND    130    120     105      80      60      50      40
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN                                                
                                                                    
                                                                    
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