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Hurricane DANIEL


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  19                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006               
1500 UTC FRI JUL 21 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
115 KTS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR.                                      
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 137N 1277W 34 98   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 137N 1277W 50 90   5(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
 12 137N 1277W 64 65  12(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
 
 24 142N 1295W 34 32  56(88)   5(93)   1(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
 24 142N 1295W 50  5  59(64)   8(72)   1(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
 24 142N 1295W 64  1  36(37)   9(46)   1(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
 
 36 146N 1313W 34  2  33(35)  35(70)   9(79)   2(81)   X(81)   X(81)
 36 146N 1313W 50  X  10(10)  31(41)   8(49)   1(50)   1(51)   X(51)
 36 146N 1313W 64  X   3( 3)  18(21)   5(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 
 48 151N 1331W 34  X   5( 5)  27(32)  22(54)   8(62)   1(63)   X(63)
 48 151N 1331W 50  X   X( X)   9( 9)  15(24)   6(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 48 151N 1331W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
 
 72 160N 1360W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)  19(31)   4(35)   1(36)
 72 160N 1360W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 72 160N 1360W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 96 175N 1380W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   5(16)   1(17)
 96 175N 1380W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 96 175N 1380W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 190N 1395W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)
120 190N 1395W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
120 190N 1395W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND    110    100      85      75      60      45      35
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC