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Hurricane DANIEL


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006
200 AM PDT THU JUL 20 2006

SHORT-WAVE VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...AS WELL AS AN
EXCELLENT SSMIS OVERPASS FROM AROUND 0400 UTC...INDICATE DANIEL'S 
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS NOW COMPLETE.  CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM TAFB...90 KT FROM SAB...AND 102 KT FROM
THE AVERAGED ADT ESTIMATES.  BASED UPON THE ABOVE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 100 KT AND DANIEL IS NOW A MAJOR
HURRICANE. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST...280/8. 
DANIEL IS FINALLY GAINING A BIT OF LATITUDE WHILE STEERED BY A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME
MORE CLUSTERED IN THE LATTER PERIODS AS OPPOSED TO THE PREVIOUS
CYCLE...WITH THE SOLUTION LEANING TOWARD A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION
THROUGH FIVE DAYS.  SINCE THIS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION. 

THE CHALLENGE WITH DANIEL LIES IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  BOTH THE
SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE CAPS THE HURRICANE AT 100 KT.
HOWEVER DUE TO THE RECENT COMPLETION OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO 115 KT IS FORECAST. 
ADDITIONALLY...A WARM OCEAN AND A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN
DANIEL AS A STRONG HURRICANE. THEREAFTER...COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THE CYCLONE TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 5 DAYS. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0900Z 12.2N 121.9W   100 KT
 12HR VT     20/1800Z 12.4N 123.1W   110 KT
 24HR VT     21/0600Z 13.0N 124.6W   115 KT
 36HR VT     21/1800Z 13.5N 126.3W   110 KT
 48HR VT     22/0600Z 14.0N 128.0W   100 KT
 72HR VT     23/0600Z 15.0N 131.0W    80 KT
 96HR VT     24/0600Z 16.0N 134.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     25/0600Z 17.0N 137.0W    55 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC