Hurricane DANIEL

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HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006
800 PM PDT WED JUL 19 2006
 
THE LATEST SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT DANIEL HAS
NOT FINISHED ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. WHILE CONVECTION HAS
BECOME STRONGER IN THE OUTER EYEWALL...THE INNER EYEWALL HAS ALSO
BECOME BETTER-DEFINED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK ESTIMATES
ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN THAN NORMAL BECAUSE OF THE EYEWALL
CYCLE AND CONSEQUENTLY THE INTENSITY IS MORE DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 95 KT IS BASED ON
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITIES OF 90 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...A CIMSS
AMSU ESTIMATE OF 101 KT AT 2100 UTC AND ADT ESTIMATES OF T5.7...104
KT...DURING THE PAST THREE HOURS.  64 KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
INCREASED IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGER EYEWALL FORMATION.  
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY TONIGHT GIVEN THE CURRENT
STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE. OUR BEST GUESS IS THAT THE INNER
EYEWALL WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.  FORECAST ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS OF LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR AND SLOWLY DECREASING WATER
TEMPERATURES BELOW 28C ALSO SUGGEST THAN THE HURRICANE COULD BECOME
AN ANNULAR-TYPE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS LEAVES OPEN
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A STRONGER AND LONGER-LASTING HURRICANE THAN
GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN HIGHER
THAN GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS UNTIL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE AND SSTS QUICKLY DECREASE.
 
IT APPEARS THAT DANIEL HAS FINALLY HALTED ANY SOUTHWARD MOTION WITH
MORE OF A WESTWARD MOTION...275/7. TRACK GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED
AROUND A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE THE
GUIDANCE DIVERGES INTO BASICALLY 3 CAMPS. THIS SPLIT APPEARS TO BE
DUE TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 30N124W. THE GFDL
TAKES THIS LOW WESTWARD AND WEAKENS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
DANIEL ENOUGH TO ALLOW RECURVATURE EAST OF 130W. THE GFS/GFS
ENSEMBLES MOVE THE FEATURE FARTHER WEST BUT STILL ALLOW MORE
POLEWARD MOTION OF THE HURRICANE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE
FASTEST SOLUTIONS ARE PROVIDED BY THE UKMET/ECMWF/NOGAPS WHICH MOVE
THE LOW OUT OF THE PICTURE QUICKLY AND KEEPS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
RELATIVELY FIRM TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. WE ARE GOING TO RELY ON
THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVING A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TROUGH THAN THE
GFDL AND STAY BETWEEN THE GFS CLUSTER AND THE EUROPEAN CLUSTER...TO
THE WEST OF CONU AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0300Z 12.0N 121.0W    95 KT
 12HR VT     20/1200Z 12.2N 122.1W   105 KT
 24HR VT     21/0000Z 12.7N 123.6W   110 KT
 36HR VT     21/1200Z 13.2N 125.1W   110 KT
 48HR VT     22/0000Z 13.8N 126.9W   100 KT
 72HR VT     23/0000Z 14.5N 130.0W    80 KT
 96HR VT     24/0000Z 15.5N 133.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     25/0000Z 17.0N 136.0W    55 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
 
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