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Hurricane DANIEL


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006
200 PM PDT WED JUL 19 2006
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A VERY SMALL PINHOLE EYE
SURROUNDED BY A MUCH LARGER CONCENTRIC EYEWALL. DESPITE THE
APPEARANCE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AT 77 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES. RAW 
CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATES SINCE 1800 UTC HAVE BEEN MUCH 
HIGHER...AROUND T5.5 OR ABOUT 100 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY 
WILL REMAIN AT 85 KT...A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 275/7. THE FORECAST TRACK
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  THEREAFTER...A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW THE SYSTEM AND IMPART
A GRADUAL NORTHWESTWARD TURN. MODELS HAVE CONTINUE TO SHOW A 
SLOWER MOTION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER 
AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. 

DANIEL CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE
SMALLER INNER EYEWALL WILL LIKELY COLLAPSE WITH THE LARGER EYE
CLEARING OUT AND BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE.  ONCE THIS OCCURS
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE GUIDANCE AND BRINGS DANIEL TO
A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS WHICH
SHOULD START A SLOW WEAKENING TEND. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/2100Z 12.0N 120.4W    85 KT
 12HR VT     20/0600Z 12.1N 121.5W    95 KT
 24HR VT     20/1800Z 12.5N 122.9W   105 KT
 36HR VT     21/0600Z 12.9N 124.5W   105 KT
 48HR VT     21/1800Z 13.4N 126.3W    95 KT
 72HR VT     22/1800Z 14.5N 130.0W    80 KT
 96HR VT     23/1800Z 15.5N 133.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     24/1800Z 17.0N 136.0W    55 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC