ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 200 PM PDT WED JUL 19 2006 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A VERY SMALL PINHOLE EYE SURROUNDED BY A MUCH LARGER CONCENTRIC EYEWALL. DESPITE THE APPEARANCE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AT 77 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES. RAW CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATES SINCE 1800 UTC HAVE BEEN MUCH HIGHER...AROUND T5.5 OR ABOUT 100 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 85 KT...A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 275/7. THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW THE SYSTEM AND IMPART A GRADUAL NORTHWESTWARD TURN. MODELS HAVE CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOWER MOTION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. DANIEL CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE SMALLER INNER EYEWALL WILL LIKELY COLLAPSE WITH THE LARGER EYE CLEARING OUT AND BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE. ONCE THIS OCCURS ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE GUIDANCE AND BRINGS DANIEL TO A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS WHICH SHOULD START A SLOW WEAKENING TEND. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 12.0N 120.4W 85 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 12.1N 121.5W 95 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 12.5N 122.9W 105 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 12.9N 124.5W 105 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 13.4N 126.3W 95 KT 72HR VT 22/1800Z 14.5N 130.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 23/1800Z 15.5N 133.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 24/1800Z 17.0N 136.0W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC