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Hurricane DANIEL


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006
800 AM PDT WED JUL 19 2006
 
DANIEL CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND EXHIBIT EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS.  A BANDING TYPE EYE HAS RECENTLY BECOME
EVIDENT IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.  LATEST SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 77 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES
AND THE CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE HAS CREPT UP TO 80 KT DURING
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  BECAUSE THE EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME  
BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KT...A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE 1200 UTC
SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.

IT APPEARS THAT THE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION HAS ENDED 
AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/7.  THIS IS A BIT 
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW THE SYSTEM AND IMPART
A GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. 

WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...DANIEL 
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL BUT
IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL INTENSITY FORECAST.  AFTER 48 HOURS...THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS WHICH 
SHOULD START A SLOW WEAKENING TEND. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/1500Z 11.9N 119.6W    85 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 12.0N 120.7W    95 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 12.4N 122.3W   105 KT
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 12.8N 123.9W   105 KT
 48HR VT     21/1200Z 13.2N 125.8W   100 KT
 72HR VT     22/1200Z 14.0N 129.5W    85 KT
 96HR VT     23/1200Z 14.8N 133.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     24/1200Z 16.0N 136.0W    60 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC