Hurricane DANIEL

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HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 18 2006
 
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DANIEL CONTINUES TO STEADILY
STRENGTHEN AND A BANDING TYPE EYE FEATURE APPEARS TO BE FORMING.
ACCORDINGLY...DANIEL IS UPGRADED TO A 65 KT HURRICANE BASED ON
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB...AND A 70 KT
ESTIMATE FROM FROM UW CIMSS ADT. 
 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD...ESPECIALLY TO THE
NORTH...VERTICAL SHEAR IS VERY LOW...AND DANIEL IS LOCATED OVER
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  ALL OF THESE POSITIVE FACTORS POINT
TO CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...PERHAPS EVEN RAPID STRENGTHENING. 
SINCE THE LATER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST MAINTAINS A STEADY INTENSIFICATION RATE TAKING DANIEL TO
MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. INTERESTINGLY...THE FSU
SUPER ENSEMBLE HAS BACKED OFF OF ITS PREVIOUS AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS
AND IS NOW IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
SHOULD DANIEL GO ON AND FORM AN EYE LATER TODAY...THE CYCLONE COULD
STRENGTHEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN SHOWN BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND TO COMMENCE.
 
DANIEL APPEARS TO BE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST OR 265/11.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH DURING THE FIRST
24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.  THEREAFTER...THE OVERALL
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS UNCHANGED. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF DANIEL
BUILDING WESTWARD WITH THE CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKENING THEREAFTER.  THIS SHOULD KEEP DANIEL ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH DAY 2 FOLLOWED A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST. ONLY THE UKMET KEEPS THE
CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/2100Z 11.9N 117.6W    65 KT
 12HR VT     19/0600Z 11.9N 119.1W    75 KT
 24HR VT     19/1800Z 12.0N 121.0W    85 KT
 36HR VT     20/0600Z 12.3N 122.7W    95 KT
 48HR VT     20/1800Z 12.8N 124.4W   100 KT
 72HR VT     21/1800Z 13.7N 127.8W   100 KT
 96HR VT     22/1800Z 14.5N 131.0W    85 KT
120HR VT     23/1800Z 16.0N 135.0W    70 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART
 
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