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Tropical Storm DANIEL


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 18 2006

DANIEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A
WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL BAND THAT WRAPS ALMOST ALL THE WAY AROUND THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS IS ALSO DEVELOPING.  0600 UTC DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
FROM SAB...AFWA...AND TAFB ARE 45 KT...45 KT...AND 65 KT
RESPECTIVELY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET...CONSERVATIVELY...AT
55 KT.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED OVER ALL QUADRANTS
EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST.  DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH AN EXTREMELY LOW-VERTICAL WIND SHEAR-ENVIRONMENT AND OVER
MODESTLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO. 
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS DANIEL APPROACHING MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS IN 48 HOURS.  THIS IS ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...
WELL BELOW THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST
GFDL PREDICTION.  WE HAVE LIMITED SKILL IN PREDICTING TROPICAL
CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE.  IF DANIEL DEVELOPS AN EYEWALL
STRUCTURE...IT COULD STRENGTHEN MORE RAPIDLY AND BECOME MORE
INTENSE THAN SHOWN BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND INCREASED SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE A
WEAKENING TREND TO COMMENCE.

LATEST FIXES FROM GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
THE MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST...AROUND 270/10.  GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
DANIEL...BUILDING WESTWARD WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS SHOULD INDUCE A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE GFS FORECASTS A WESTWARD-MOVING
MID-TROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION BETWEEN 10N AND 25N...MOVING FROM NEAR
140W TO 145 FROM DAYS 3 TO 5 OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A GRADUAL RIGHTWARD BEND IN DANIEL'S TRACK
DURING THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0900Z 12.2N 115.2W    55 KT
 12HR VT     18/1800Z 12.2N 116.7W    65 KT
 24HR VT     19/0600Z 12.2N 118.5W    75 KT
 36HR VT     19/1800Z 12.2N 120.3W    85 KT
 48HR VT     20/0600Z 12.5N 122.0W    95 KT
 72HR VT     21/0600Z 13.0N 125.0W    95 KT
 96HR VT     22/0600Z 13.5N 128.0W    90 KT
120HR VT     23/0600Z 14.5N 131.0W    80 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC