ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 18 2006 DANIEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL BAND THAT WRAPS ALMOST ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS IS ALSO DEVELOPING. 0600 UTC DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM SAB...AFWA...AND TAFB ARE 45 KT...45 KT...AND 65 KT RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET...CONSERVATIVELY...AT 55 KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED OVER ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST. DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH AN EXTREMELY LOW-VERTICAL WIND SHEAR-ENVIRONMENT AND OVER MODESTLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS DANIEL APPROACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN 48 HOURS. THIS IS ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE... WELL BELOW THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFDL PREDICTION. WE HAVE LIMITED SKILL IN PREDICTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE. IF DANIEL DEVELOPS AN EYEWALL STRUCTURE...IT COULD STRENGTHEN MORE RAPIDLY AND BECOME MORE INTENSE THAN SHOWN BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND INCREASED SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND TO COMMENCE. LATEST FIXES FROM GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST...AROUND 270/10. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL...BUILDING WESTWARD WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SHOULD INDUCE A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GFS FORECASTS A WESTWARD-MOVING MID-TROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION BETWEEN 10N AND 25N...MOVING FROM NEAR 140W TO 145 FROM DAYS 3 TO 5 OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A GRADUAL RIGHTWARD BEND IN DANIEL'S TRACK DURING THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 12.2N 115.2W 55 KT 12HR VT 18/1800Z 12.2N 116.7W 65 KT 24HR VT 19/0600Z 12.2N 118.5W 75 KT 36HR VT 19/1800Z 12.2N 120.3W 85 KT 48HR VT 20/0600Z 12.5N 122.0W 95 KT 72HR VT 21/0600Z 13.0N 125.0W 95 KT 96HR VT 22/0600Z 13.5N 128.0W 90 KT 120HR VT 23/0600Z 14.5N 131.0W 80 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC