Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm DANIEL


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006
800 PM PDT MON JUL 17 2006
 
THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF DANIEL CONTINUES TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING.
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES DISPLAY ORGANIZED BANDING FEATURES
AND DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM.  TAFB AND
SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT OR 3.0/3.0 FROM BOTH AGENCIES.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 45 KT.  

THE STORM CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD TRACK AT 270/10.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE.  AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
WESTWARD...DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK AND
POSSIBLY BE NUDGED SLIGHTLY WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS. THIS IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. 
AFTER 48 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
ALONG 125W AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST.  THIS PATTERN
SHOULD ALLOW DANIEL TO MOVE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IN THE
LATER PERIODS.  

BOTH ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING...SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 27 DEGREES CELSIUS.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS
A BLEND OF SHIPS... GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE.  THE FSU
SUPER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE FORECASTING A
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IN THREE TO FOUR DAYS...WHILE THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE PEAKS AT 75 KT AS A RESULT OF MORE STABLE AIR-MASS ALONG
THE FORECAST PATH OF THE CYCLONE.  

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0300Z 12.3N 114.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     18/1200Z 12.3N 115.4W    55 KT
 24HR VT     19/0000Z 12.3N 117.3W    65 KT
 36HR VT     19/1200Z 12.3N 118.9W    75 KT
 48HR VT     20/0000Z 12.4N 120.7W    85 KT
 72HR VT     21/0000Z 12.8N 123.5W    95 KT
 96HR VT     22/0000Z 13.5N 126.0W    95 KT
120HR VT     23/0000Z 14.0N 129.0W    90 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC