Tropical Storm DANIEL

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TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006
800 AM PDT MON JUL 17 2006
 
CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CENTRALIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND
SYSTEM ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED OVERALL. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB... AND 33 KT
AND 1005 MB FROM A 17/0903Z UW-CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE. THEREFORE...THE
CYCLONE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM DANIEL. UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS NEARLY SYMMETRICAL AND ALSO CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO STILL BE WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED OF 10 KT. SYMPATHETIC LOW-LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL BETWEEN IT AND THE
REMNANTS OF CARLOTTA. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS TYPE OF RIDGING PATTERN TO PERSIST...
WHICH SHOULD KEEP DANIEL ON A GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...ONLY SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME WEAKENING
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AFTER 72 HOURS AS ALLUDED TO IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY DISCUSSION.

THE GFS-BASED SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEGLIGIBLE...LESS THAN 5 KT...THROUGH 96 HOURS. THIS
TYPE OF LOW-SHEAR PATTERN...COUPLED WITH THE CURRENT DUAL OUTFLOW
CHANNEL PATTER... USUALLY WOULD FAVOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...YET
THE SHIPS MODEL ONLY BRINGS DANIEL UP 67 KT IN 72 HOURS. IN
CONTRAST...THE GFDL MODEL MAKES DANIEL A 100 KT HURRICANE BY THE
SAME TIME. THE SHIPS MODEL DOES INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL
HUMIDITY WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 50 PERCENT BY 48 HOURS...BUT
DANIEL IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF BEING ABLE TO MIX OUT DRY AIR
THAT HAS BEEN PUNCHING INTO THE INNER-CORE REGION THE PAST DAY OR
SO. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY
HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT A LITTLE LESS THAN THE GFDL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/1500Z 12.4N 112.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     18/0000Z 12.6N 113.6W    45 KT
 24HR VT     18/1200Z 12.6N 115.3W    55 KT
 36HR VT     19/0000Z 12.6N 116.9W    65 KT
 48HR VT     19/1200Z 12.7N 118.8W    75 KT
 72HR VT     20/1200Z 12.9N 121.5W    90 KT
 96HR VT     21/1200Z 13.0N 124.5W    90 KT
120HR VT     22/1200Z 13.5N 127.5W    85 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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