ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 800 AM PDT MON JUL 17 2006 CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CENTRALIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND SYSTEM ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED OVERALL. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB... AND 33 KT AND 1005 MB FROM A 17/0903Z UW-CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE. THEREFORE...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM DANIEL. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NEARLY SYMMETRICAL AND ALSO CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO STILL BE WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED OF 10 KT. SYMPATHETIC LOW-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL BETWEEN IT AND THE REMNANTS OF CARLOTTA. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS TYPE OF RIDGING PATTERN TO PERSIST... WHICH SHOULD KEEP DANIEL ON A GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ONLY SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AFTER 72 HOURS AS ALLUDED TO IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DISCUSSION. THE GFS-BASED SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE NEGLIGIBLE...LESS THAN 5 KT...THROUGH 96 HOURS. THIS TYPE OF LOW-SHEAR PATTERN...COUPLED WITH THE CURRENT DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNEL PATTER... USUALLY WOULD FAVOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...YET THE SHIPS MODEL ONLY BRINGS DANIEL UP 67 KT IN 72 HOURS. IN CONTRAST...THE GFDL MODEL MAKES DANIEL A 100 KT HURRICANE BY THE SAME TIME. THE SHIPS MODEL DOES INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 50 PERCENT BY 48 HOURS...BUT DANIEL IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF BEING ABLE TO MIX OUT DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN PUNCHING INTO THE INNER-CORE REGION THE PAST DAY OR SO. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT A LITTLE LESS THAN THE GFDL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 12.4N 112.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 12.6N 113.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 12.6N 115.3W 55 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 12.6N 116.9W 65 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 12.7N 118.8W 75 KT 72HR VT 20/1200Z 12.9N 121.5W 90 KT 96HR VT 21/1200Z 13.0N 124.5W 90 KT 120HR VT 22/1200Z 13.5N 127.5W 85 KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC