Tropical Depression FIVE-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 16 2006
 
THE DISTURBANCE WELL SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO
ORGANIZE...AND THUS ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE-E.  CLOUD TOPS IN CONVECTIVE BANDS NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
CENTER ARE BETWEEN -70C AND -80C...ALTHOUGH THE BANDS ARE STILL
RATHER FAR FROM THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30
KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND SHIP PFSK REPORTED 23 KT WINDS ABOUT 115
N MI NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER AT 00Z.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/13.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE
MODEL ANALYSES SHOW THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF THE WESTERN END OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW COMBINING WITH THE
REMNANTS OF BUD AND CARLOTTA TO CREATE A LARGE HOLE IN THE RIDGE
FARTHER WEST.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD
BUILD WESTWARD AND FILL THE HOLE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...AND
SHOULD THIS OCCUR IT WOULD FORCE THE DEPRESSION ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK.  TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS...
EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS WHICH FORECASTS THE CYCLONE TO STAY NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR FIVE DAYS.  SINCE THE NOGAPS SHOWS THE SAME GENERAL
PATTERN EVOLUTION...THIS LACK OF MOTION IS PUZZLING.  IT COULD BE
RELATED TO THE NOGAPS NOT DEVELOPING THE CYCLONE ENOUGH.  THE
FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION FOR FIVE DAYS
WITH GRADUAL DECELERATION FROM 13 KT TO 8 KT...AND IT IS ALONG THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW.  THE GFS...
UKMET...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF MODELS FORECAST A LARGE ANTICYCLONE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE NOGAPS
LOOKS LESS FAVORABLE...BUT STILL FORECASTS LIGHT SHEAR.  DESPITE
THIS...THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS DO NOT FORECAST A STRONG SYSTEM. 
SHIPS CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO PEAK AT 65 KT IN 72 HR...WHILE THE
GFDL TAKES 96 HR TO MAKE THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE.  GIVEN THE LACK OF
OBVIOUS INHIBITING FACTORS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR 75 KT
IN 72 HR.  THE FORECAST INTENSITY LEVELS OFF AT THAT TIME SINCE THE
SYSTEM MAY BE APPROACHING THE EDGE OF THE WARMEST WATER...
ESPECIALLY IF IT GOES NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK.  THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE CYCLONE
CONSOLIDATES IN 24-48 HR.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0300Z 12.4N 109.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     17/1200Z 12.6N 111.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     18/0000Z 12.8N 113.9W    45 KT
 36HR VT     18/1200Z 12.9N 116.0W    55 KT
 48HR VT     19/0000Z 12.9N 117.9W    65 KT
 72HR VT     20/0000Z 13.0N 121.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     21/0000Z 13.0N 124.0W    75 KT
120HR VT     22/0000Z 13.5N 127.5W    70 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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