ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 16 2006 THE DISTURBANCE WELL SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE...AND THUS ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E. CLOUD TOPS IN CONVECTIVE BANDS NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER ARE BETWEEN -70C AND -80C...ALTHOUGH THE BANDS ARE STILL RATHER FAR FROM THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND SHIP PFSK REPORTED 23 KT WINDS ABOUT 115 N MI NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER AT 00Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/13. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE MODEL ANALYSES SHOW THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF THE WESTERN END OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW COMBINING WITH THE REMNANTS OF BUD AND CARLOTTA TO CREATE A LARGE HOLE IN THE RIDGE FARTHER WEST. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD WESTWARD AND FILL THE HOLE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...AND SHOULD THIS OCCUR IT WOULD FORCE THE DEPRESSION ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS... EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS WHICH FORECASTS THE CYCLONE TO STAY NEARLY STATIONARY FOR FIVE DAYS. SINCE THE NOGAPS SHOWS THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN EVOLUTION...THIS LACK OF MOTION IS PUZZLING. IT COULD BE RELATED TO THE NOGAPS NOT DEVELOPING THE CYCLONE ENOUGH. THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION FOR FIVE DAYS WITH GRADUAL DECELERATION FROM 13 KT TO 8 KT...AND IT IS ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW. THE GFS... UKMET...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF MODELS FORECAST A LARGE ANTICYCLONE TO DEVELOP OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NOGAPS LOOKS LESS FAVORABLE...BUT STILL FORECASTS LIGHT SHEAR. DESPITE THIS...THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS DO NOT FORECAST A STRONG SYSTEM. SHIPS CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO PEAK AT 65 KT IN 72 HR...WHILE THE GFDL TAKES 96 HR TO MAKE THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE. GIVEN THE LACK OF OBVIOUS INHIBITING FACTORS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR 75 KT IN 72 HR. THE FORECAST INTENSITY LEVELS OFF AT THAT TIME SINCE THE SYSTEM MAY BE APPROACHING THE EDGE OF THE WARMEST WATER... ESPECIALLY IF IT GOES NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE CYCLONE CONSOLIDATES IN 24-48 HR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 12.4N 109.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 12.6N 111.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 18/0000Z 12.8N 113.9W 45 KT 36HR VT 18/1200Z 12.9N 116.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 19/0000Z 12.9N 117.9W 65 KT 72HR VT 20/0000Z 13.0N 121.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 21/0000Z 13.0N 124.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 22/0000Z 13.5N 127.5W 70 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC