Tropical Storm CARLOTTA
ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006
CARLOTTA HAS BECOME A VERY TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW
WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY-CURVED BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND QUIKSCAT DATA SUPPORT
60 KNOTS. CARLOTTA'S ENTIRE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO WEAKENING IS
INDICATED...AND THIS COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN FORECAST.
INITIAL MOTION IS 285/8. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN
AND BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THEN...A
TURN MORE TO THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/2100Z 18.6N 114.4W 60 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 18.9N 115.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 19.2N 117.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 19.5N 119.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 19.5N 121.5W 25 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 19.5N 123.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 18/1800Z 19.6N 126.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 19/1800Z 19.5N 128.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN