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Hurricane CARLOTTA


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006
200 AM PDT THU JUL 13 2006
 
A 0340 UTC SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED THAT CARLOTTA IS
DEVELOPING AN EYE BENEATH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST... THOUGH AT
THAT TIME IT HAD NOT QUITE REACHED THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE
HURRICANE JUDGING FROM THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL. NIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE
OCCASIONALLY SHOWS HINTS OF A DIMPLE FORMING WITHIN THE RATHER COLD
CLOUD TOPS AND IT IS POSSIBLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE AN EYE
POKES OUT OF THE CDO. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT...IN
BETWEEN THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. ALL
PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE IN PLACE FOR A CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION
WITH VERY LOW SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WARM SSTS NEAR
29C... AND NO OBVIOUS UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS. SHIPS IS
DIAGNOSING AT LEAST 15 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS... WHICH SEEMS WAY TOO HIGH GIVEN THE NEARLY SYMMETRIC
OUTFLOW PATTERN AND THE CIMSS CLOUD-TRACKED WINDS WHICH SHOW
EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE. AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS BEEN MOVING IN TANDEM WITH THE CYCLONE DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO CONTRIBUTE TO PROVIDING A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. IN ADDITION...A LEFTWARD
BEND TO THE TRACK AS DISCUSSED IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH SEEMS LIKELY
AND IS OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFICATION. THESE FACTORS ARE THE
BASIS FOR AN INTENSITY FORECAST ABOVE SHIPS AND THE GFDL... WHICH
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY UNDER-FORECASTING CARLOTTA. WEAKENING MAY
COMMENCE BEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE CROSSES THE 26C ISOTHERM.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE HURRICANE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT.. 285/13 KT DURING THE LAST 6-12 HOURS WITH A SHORTER-TERM
MOTION PERHAPS EVEN MORE TO THE LEFT. THE TRACK COULD BEND A LITTLE
MORE TO THE LEFT IN ABOUT A DAY DUE TO A STRENGTHENING OF THE
MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS HIGH IS A LITTLE
STRONGER IN THE MOST RECENT COMPUTER MODELS... WHICH FORCES THE
HURRICANE ON MORE OF A WESTWARD TRACK. ONLY THE NOGAPS NOW BRINGS
CARLOTTA NORTH OF 20N IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED SOUTHWARD OF PREVIOUS AND IS ROUGHLY IN BETWEEN THE NOGAPS
AND ECMWF... BOTH OF WHICH APPEAR TO HAVE REASONABLE
REPRESENTATIONS OF THE STORM'S LIKELY FUTURE STATE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0900Z 16.4N 109.4W    75 KT
 12HR VT     13/1800Z 16.9N 111.2W    85 KT
 24HR VT     14/0600Z 17.3N 112.8W   100 KT
 36HR VT     14/1800Z 17.5N 114.5W   100 KT
 48HR VT     15/0600Z 17.5N 116.0W    95 KT
 72HR VT     16/0600Z 18.0N 119.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     17/0600Z 18.5N 122.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     18/0600Z 19.5N 125.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC