ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 200 AM PDT THU JUL 13 2006 A 0340 UTC SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED THAT CARLOTTA IS DEVELOPING AN EYE BENEATH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST... THOUGH AT THAT TIME IT HAD NOT QUITE REACHED THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE HURRICANE JUDGING FROM THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL. NIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE OCCASIONALLY SHOWS HINTS OF A DIMPLE FORMING WITHIN THE RATHER COLD CLOUD TOPS AND IT IS POSSIBLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE AN EYE POKES OUT OF THE CDO. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT...IN BETWEEN THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. ALL PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE IN PLACE FOR A CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION WITH VERY LOW SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WARM SSTS NEAR 29C... AND NO OBVIOUS UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS. SHIPS IS DIAGNOSING AT LEAST 15 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WHICH SEEMS WAY TOO HIGH GIVEN THE NEARLY SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW PATTERN AND THE CIMSS CLOUD-TRACKED WINDS WHICH SHOW EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS BEEN MOVING IN TANDEM WITH THE CYCLONE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO CONTRIBUTE TO PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. IN ADDITION...A LEFTWARD BEND TO THE TRACK AS DISCUSSED IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH SEEMS LIKELY AND IS OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFICATION. THESE FACTORS ARE THE BASIS FOR AN INTENSITY FORECAST ABOVE SHIPS AND THE GFDL... WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY UNDER-FORECASTING CARLOTTA. WEAKENING MAY COMMENCE BEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE CROSSES THE 26C ISOTHERM. THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE HURRICANE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT.. 285/13 KT DURING THE LAST 6-12 HOURS WITH A SHORTER-TERM MOTION PERHAPS EVEN MORE TO THE LEFT. THE TRACK COULD BEND A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT IN ABOUT A DAY DUE TO A STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS HIGH IS A LITTLE STRONGER IN THE MOST RECENT COMPUTER MODELS... WHICH FORCES THE HURRICANE ON MORE OF A WESTWARD TRACK. ONLY THE NOGAPS NOW BRINGS CARLOTTA NORTH OF 20N IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD OF PREVIOUS AND IS ROUGHLY IN BETWEEN THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF... BOTH OF WHICH APPEAR TO HAVE REASONABLE REPRESENTATIONS OF THE STORM'S LIKELY FUTURE STATE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0900Z 16.4N 109.4W 75 KT 12HR VT 13/1800Z 16.9N 111.2W 85 KT 24HR VT 14/0600Z 17.3N 112.8W 100 KT 36HR VT 14/1800Z 17.5N 114.5W 100 KT 48HR VT 15/0600Z 17.5N 116.0W 95 KT 72HR VT 16/0600Z 18.0N 119.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 17/0600Z 18.5N 122.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 18/0600Z 19.5N 125.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC