Tropical Storm CARLOTTA

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006
800 AM PDT WED JUL 12 2006
 
CARLOTTA IS SLOWLY ORGANIZING...WITH SOME ILL-DEFINED BANDS
BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  THERE IS AMPLE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOTTA
BUT OVERALL THE SYSTEM IS STILL RATHER RAGGED-LOOKING.  DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KT SO THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT.  THE SHIPS MODEL...USING THE GFS
FORECAST FIELDS...INDICATES 13-15 KT OF NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR
OVER CARLOTTA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS IS PROBABLY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
THAT IS CURRENTLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS.  HOWEVER...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST THAT THIS UPPER CYCLONE IS NOT VERY
SIGNIFICANT AND THE SHIPS SHEAR VALUES ARE PROBABLY A LITTLE HIGH. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR CARLOTTA TO BECOME A HURRICANE
WITHIN 24 HOURS AND TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. 
THIS FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE.   GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE WITHIN
ABOUT 3 DAYS WITH A MORE RAPID DECLINE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
DUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/11...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS
NOT YET WELL-DEFINED.  THE STEERING SCENARIO IS A TYPICAL ONE FOR
THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.  CARLOTTA IS EMBEDDED IN THE STEERING
FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  AS A RESULT
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY HEADING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS ONLY SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS
3-5.  THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/1500Z 14.5N 105.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     13/0000Z 15.0N 107.0W    50 KT
 24HR VT     13/1200Z 15.6N 109.1W    65 KT
 36HR VT     14/0000Z 16.2N 111.3W    75 KT
 48HR VT     14/1200Z 16.5N 113.2W    80 KT
 72HR VT     15/1200Z 17.0N 116.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     16/1200Z 18.0N 119.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     17/1200Z 19.0N 121.0W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN