Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm BUD


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006
 
BUD IS QUICKLY WEAKENING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COLD SSTS AND A
STABLE AIRMASS.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65-77
KT...BUT ARE CONSTRAINED BY THE DVORAK RULES.  DATA T-NUMBERS
SUGGEST A SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER SYSTEM. INTENSITY IS ANALYZED TO BE
55 KT...THOUGH THIS MAY BE GENEROUS GIVEN THE NEAR LACK OF
CONVECTION. THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES ITS STRAIGHT TRACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 13 KT.
 
AS BUD IS NOW BEING STEERED BY THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW...A BUILDING
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC HIGH SHOULD TURN THE STORM BACK TO THE WEST IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS AND PERHAPS A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY AT DAYS
FOUR AND FIVE.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE COLD 22 C WATERS AND STABLE
AIR...BUD WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT A DAY AND A
HALF AND MAY NOT EXIST AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
RELIES HEAVILY UPON SHIPS AND GFDI...BUT IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS
THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE WHICH DISSIPATES BUD ALMOST IMMEDIATELY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/1500Z 19.7N 127.1W    55 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 20.1N 129.2W    40 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 20.5N 131.9W    30 KT
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 20.8N 134.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 21.0N 137.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 21.0N 142.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     18/1200Z 20.5N 148.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     19/1200Z 20.0N 154.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC