Tropical Depression THREE-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006
800 PM PDT MON JUL 10 2006
 
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT
625 NMI SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ACQUIRED
ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THREE-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT FROM THE TAFB.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT RESTRICTED TO
THE NORTH.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/07. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG
THE GLOBAL MODELS IS THAT THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED ALONG 25N LATITUDE WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE CYCLONE
EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION. THE SLOWER
THAN AVERAGE FORWARD SPEED OF ONLY 7-8 KT IS POSSIBLY DUE TO SOME
INTERACTION WITH A MUCH LARGER DISTURBANCE...PROBABLY THE NEXT
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP...LOCATED ABOUT 900 NMI TO THE EAST.
THAT SYSTEM IS MOVING FASTER THAN TD-3E...SO THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF MOTION IMPARTED TO THE DEPRESSION IN 24-48
HOURS AS INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS GRADUALLY INCREASES.

A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION HAS BEEN INDUCING WEAK NORTHERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS...WHICH HAVE BEEN INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS INDICATES THAT
LOW HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME ELONGATED EAST-WEST...PRODUCING
NORTHWESTERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
DEPRESSION...THUS DECREASING THE SHEAR. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR AT LEAST SLOW STEADY STRENGTHENING...AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY
MODEL FORECAST WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0300Z 12.5N 110.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     11/1200Z 12.8N 111.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     12/0000Z 13.2N 113.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     12/1200Z 13.6N 114.4W    45 KT
 48HR VT     13/0000Z 14.0N 115.8W    55 KT
 72HR VT     14/0000Z 14.8N 118.6W    60 KT
 96HR VT     15/0000Z 15.5N 121.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     16/0000Z 16.0N 124.5W    55 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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