Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression TWO-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022006
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 04 2006
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS ACCELERATED EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OUT FROM
UNDER THE EARLIER DEEP CONVECTION... THE LATTER OF WHICH HAS SINCE
WEAKENED AND MOVED NORTHEASTWARD INTO MEXICO. AT 18Z...AS THE
CENTER WAS PASSING SOUTH OF ACAPULCO... A SUSTAINED WIND OF 22 KT
WITH A GUST TO 32 KT WAS REPORTED. THIS WIND DATA... ALONG WITH 
CONSENSUS T1.5 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES... IS BARELY ENOUGH TO
KEEP THIS SYSTEM LIMPING ALONG AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THIS
ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 100/09 KT. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS
NORTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS... AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A LARGER-SCALE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO. THE TWO WESTERLY STREAM FLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE PUSHING THE CYCLONE EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL STILL INSIST
THAT TD-2E WILL NOT MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO. HOWEVER...GIVEN THEIR
LESS THAN STERLING PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS... THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND BRINGS THE CYCLONE
VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN 12 HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATES IT
AFTER THAT...EVEN IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER.
 
UNFAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR... DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
PUNCHING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE... AND THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LAND SHOULD INHIBIT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...
AND WILL LIKELY HELP TO BRING ABOUT ITS DEMISE BY THIS TIME
TOMORROW... EVEN IF THE CYCLONE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER. THE GFDL
MODEL DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE AFTER 24 HOURS OVER WATER... AND
DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR EVEN SOONER IF THE CENTER MOVES INLAND
LATER TONIGHT.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/2100Z 16.5N  99.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 16.3N  99.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC