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Tropical Depression TWO-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022006
200 PM PDT SAT JUN 03 2006
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. IT NOW CONSISTS
OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND SOME CONVECTIVE
BANDS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. BASED ON T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 30 KNOTS. THE UPPER-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AND
A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY INTERACTING WITH LAND.
THEREFORE...ONLY A 5-KNOT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS INDICATED IN THE
FORECAST. THIS BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS
BEFORE LANDFALL AND PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO.
 
THE CENTER CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND APPEARS TO BE ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 035 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION
CONTINUES TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA BY A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
RAIN IS ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND ACCORDING TO THE
MEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE...ACAPULCO HAS ALREADY REPORTED NEARLY 11
INCHES OF RAIN.
 
GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON KEEPING A WEAKER CYCLONE MEANDERING NEAR OR
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST FOR A FEW DAYS. IF THE CENTER
REMAINS OVER WATER AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE
DEPRESSION COULD MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY LONGER INSTEAD OF
DISSIPATING OVER LAND.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/2100Z 16.7N 102.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 17.6N 101.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 18.0N 101.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     05/0600Z 18.0N 100.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC