Tropical Depression ONE-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012006
800 AM PDT SAT MAY 27 2006
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURROUNDING SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE-E HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR HAS TEMPORARILY
WEAKENED SOMEWHAT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OS 30 KT AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...RESPECTIVELY. AT 12Z...SHIP H9UY LOCATED ABOUT 100 NMI
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER REPORTED WESTERLY WINDS OF 21 KT AND A
PRESSURE OF 1006.0 MB.
 
THE BROAD CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING OR REFORMING
SLOWLY NORTH OR EVEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 4 KT CLOSER TO THE
STRONG CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND ONLY A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST
IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AFTER THAT...WEAK RIDGING FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND CENTRAL MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO
NUDGE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY WESTWARD. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MODELS...
LIKE NOGAPS AND THE ECMWF...MOVE THE STORM INTO MEXICO NEAR ACAPULCO
IN 48-72 HOURS BEFORE TURNING IT SLOWLY WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK WAS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...MAINLY DUE TO THE CURRENT WEAK WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR
SO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MODEL AND A BLEND OF
THE MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM MODELS.

THE CURRENT MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN TO 5-10 KT BY 36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME
GRADUAL SLOW INTENSIFICATION...AND THE CYCLONE COULD EASILY BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT FOR A 30- AND 35-KT TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH BY 96 HOURS...AND THIS IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IF THE
CENTER REMAINS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THE COAST OF MEXICO.

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS AT
THIS TIME... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/1500Z 15.1N 101.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     28/0000Z 15.5N 101.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     28/1200Z 16.0N 101.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     29/0000Z 16.4N 100.9W    45 KT
 48HR VT     29/1200Z 16.7N 101.4W    45 KT
 72HR VT     30/1200Z 16.8N 101.9W    45 KT
 96HR VT     31/1200Z 16.8N 102.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     01/1200Z 16.8N 103.0W    45 KT
 
 
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