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Hurricane ISAAC


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17                 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092006               
2100 UTC SUN OCT 01 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
36.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   1( 1)  19(20)   5(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X  23(23)  52(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   2( 2)  21(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X  38(38)  28(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   4( 4)  18(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
ILE ST PIERRE  64  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X  12(12)  14(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
BURGEO NFLD    50  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   5( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  2  17(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 397N  591W 34 97   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 397N  591W 50 53  13(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
 12 397N  591W 64 20   3(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
 24 451N  562W 34  X  79(79)   6(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
 24 451N  562W 50  X  29(29)   9(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 24 451N  562W 64  X   8( 8)   4(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
 36 495N  520W 34  X   2( 2)  61(63)   7(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
 36 495N  520W 50  X   X( X)  19(19)   8(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 36 495N  520W 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
 48 525N  470W 34  X   X( X)   7( 7)  41(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)
 48 525N  470W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 48 525N  470W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     65     60      55      50       0       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN                                               
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Sunday, 01-Oct-2006 20:50:02 UTC