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Hurricane ISAAC


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15                 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092006               
0900 UTC SUN OCT 01 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
33.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  26(27)  10(37)   X(37)   X(37)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)  18(18)  38(56)   2(58)   X(58)   X(58)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)   2(20)   X(20)   X(20)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)  17(17)  15(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   3( 3)  11(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 355N  604W 34 97   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 355N  604W 50 67  12(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
 12 355N  604W 64 44   8(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
 
 24 398N  589W 34  1  79(80)   8(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
 24 398N  589W 50  X  39(39)   8(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
 24 398N  589W 64  X  12(12)   3(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
 36 446N  554W 34  X   1( 1)  57(58)  10(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
 36 446N  554W 50  X   X( X)  18(18)   6(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 36 446N  554W 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 48 485N  509W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  40(42)   9(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 48 485N  509W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   5(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 48 485N  509W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 72 525N  420W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  31(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 72 525N  420W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 72 525N  420W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     75     65      55      50      45       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Sunday, 01-Oct-2006 09:00:02 UTC