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Hurricane HELENE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006               
1500 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 195N  469W 34 97   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 195N  469W 50 65  13(78)   1(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
 12 195N  469W 64 30  15(45)   2(47)   X(47)   1(48)   X(48)   X(48)
 
 24 204N  483W 34 55  33(88)   5(93)   1(94)   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)
 24 204N  483W 50  5  46(51)   9(60)   2(62)   2(64)   X(64)   X(64)
 24 204N  483W 64  1  24(25)  10(35)   1(36)   2(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 
 36 211N  494W 34 11  47(58)  19(77)   7(84)   4(88)   X(88)   X(88)
 36 211N  494W 50  1  18(19)  25(44)   7(51)   3(54)   2(56)   X(56)
 36 211N  494W 64  X   5( 5)  17(22)   5(27)   3(30)   1(31)   X(31)
 
 48 219N  506W 34  3  19(22)  30(52)  17(69)  10(79)   1(80)   X(80)
 48 219N  506W 50  X   3( 3)  17(20)  15(35)  10(45)   1(46)   1(47)
 48 219N  506W 64  X   1( 1)   7( 8)  11(19)   5(24)   1(25)   1(26)
 
 
 72 235N  535W 34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)  16(23)  30(53)   8(61)   2(63)
 72 235N  535W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  19(25)   7(32)   2(34)
 72 235N  535W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   4(17)   1(18)
 
 
 96 255N  565W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  18(20)  20(40)   9(49)
 96 255N  565W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  12(18)   3(21)
 96 255N  565W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)
 
 
120 285N  580W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  16(21)  12(33)
120 285N  580W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   7(14)
120 285N  580W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     70     75      80      85      90      85      80
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN/LANDSEA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Saturday, 16-Sep-2006 15:00:01 UTC