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Tropical Depression EIGHT


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2       
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006               
2100 UTC TUE SEP 12 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 120N  263W 34 38  11(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 12 120N  263W 50  3   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 12 120N  263W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 123N  295W 34  X  39(39)  10(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 24 123N  295W 50  X   7( 7)   4(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 24 123N  295W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 126N  331W 34  X   1( 1)  35(36)  10(46)   2(48)   X(48)   X(48)
 36 126N  331W 50  X   X( X)   8( 8)   5(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 36 126N  331W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 48 133N  367W 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  30(34)  14(48)   1(49)   X(49)
 48 133N  367W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   7(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 48 133N  367W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
 72 155N  420W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  30(32)  10(42)   2(44)
 72 155N  420W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   6(19)   2(21)
 72 155N  420W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)
 
 
 96 175N  460W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  21(29)   9(38)
 96 175N  460W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   5(16)
 96 175N  460W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
 
120 200N  500W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  15(26)
120 200N  500W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)
120 200N  500W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     40     45      50      60      70      85      95
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 12-Sep-2006 20:40:01 UTC