Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm HELENE


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006
 
GOES AND METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN
IS BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS MORE TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL STORM. THE
CONVECTION IS MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...AND THERE IS A
WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND TO THE SOUTH WITH NUMEROUS
RAINBANDS ALL AROUND. THE OUTFLOW IS PRIMARILY DEFINED TO THE SOUTH
AND TO THE WEST.  IN FACT...T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED AND SUPPORT
INTENSITIES OF AT LEAST 50 KNOTS. I AM ONLY GOING TO MENTION THE
WELL-KNOWN PARAMETERS THAT FAVOR INTENSIFICATION...LOW SHEAR AND
WARM OCEAN...AND THESE TWO ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT. THEREFORE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND HELENE COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT A DAY.
 
HELENE APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE BIT AND IS NOW MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. HELENE IS
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A RIDGE...BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD A LARGE TROUGH OR WEAKNESS WHICH IS FORECAST TO COVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THERE IS NOT MUCH MORE TO ADD TO THE TRACK
FORECAST EXCEPT THAT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE SINCE MOST OF THE
RELIABLE GUIDANCE... GFDL/GFS/UK/ECMWF MODELS AND SO FORTH...
UNANIMOUSLY TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD OVER OPEN
WATER.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1500Z 15.8N  41.4W    50 KT
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 16.6N  43.1W    60 KT
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 17.8N  45.0W    65 KT
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 18.7N  46.5W    70 KT
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 19.5N  48.0W    75 KT
 72HR VT     18/1200Z 21.5N  50.5W    85 KT
 96HR VT     19/1200Z 23.5N  53.0W    85 KT
120HR VT     20/1200Z 26.0N  55.0W    85 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 15-Sep-2006 15:05:02 UTC