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Tropical Storm GORDON


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006               
1500 UTC TUE SEP 12 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 244N  586W 34 88   5(93)   X(93)   1(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
 12 244N  586W 50 41  18(59)   1(60)   X(60)   1(61)   X(61)   X(61)
 12 244N  586W 64  4   7(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
 24 258N  588W 34 24  53(77)   8(85)   2(87)   1(88)   X(88)   X(88)
 24 258N  588W 50  3  40(43)  11(54)   2(56)   X(56)   1(57)   X(57)
 24 258N  588W 64  X  16(16)   9(25)   1(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
 36 274N  588W 34  2  36(38)  32(70)   9(79)   3(82)   1(83)   X(83)
 36 274N  588W 50  X   8( 8)  32(40)   7(47)   3(50)   1(51)   X(51)
 36 274N  588W 64  X   2( 2)  16(18)   6(24)   2(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 
 48 290N  585W 34  1   8( 9)  35(44)  20(64)  10(74)   1(75)   1(76)
 48 290N  585W 50  X   1( 1)  14(15)  18(33)   8(41)   2(43)   X(43)
 48 290N  585W 64  X   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)   4(20)   2(22)   X(22)
 
 
 72 320N  575W 34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  18(23)  29(52)   9(61)   2(63)
 72 320N  575W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  19(24)   6(30)   1(31)
 72 320N  575W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   3(15)   1(16)
 
 
 96 350N  545W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)  23(40)   6(46)
 96 350N  545W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)   4(20)
 96 350N  545W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)
 
 
120 391N  490W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  14(24)
120 391N  490W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
120 391N  490W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     55     65      75      75      75      70      60
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER COBB/PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 12-Sep-2006 14:40:02 UTC