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Tropical Depression SEVEN


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1       
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006               
0300 UTC MON SEP 11 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 203N  553W 34 17  14(31)   3(34)   2(36)   1(37)   X(37)   X(37)
 12 203N  553W 50  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 12 203N  553W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 207N  564W 34  6  26(32)   9(41)   4(45)   1(46)   1(47)   X(47)
 24 207N  564W 50  X   4( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 24 207N  564W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 214N  578W 34  1  10(11)  23(34)   6(40)   5(45)   X(45)   1(46)
 36 214N  578W 50  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 36 214N  578W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
 48 222N  590W 34  X   3( 3)  15(18)  15(33)   8(41)   1(42)   1(43)
 48 222N  590W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   4(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 48 222N  590W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
 
 72 245N  610W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)  18(28)   7(35)   2(37)
 72 245N  610W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)   1(11)
 72 245N  610W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 96 270N  625W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)  10(23)   4(27)
 96 270N  625W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)
 96 270N  625W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 
 
120 295N  625W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   7(20)
120 295N  625W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
120 295N  625W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     30     35      40      45      45      45      45
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KNABB/BERG                                                   
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN