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Hurricane GORDON


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 18 2006
 
GORDON'S EYE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING IN VISIBLE...
INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A COLD RING OF ABOUT
-60C CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING A WARM -6C EYE.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 75 AND 90 KT FROM TAFB..SAB AND KGWC. 
MOREOVER...THE OBJECTIVE TECHNIQUES SUGGEST WINDS OF 80 TO 100 KT. 
THE INTENSITY IS THUS INCREASED UP TO 80 KT.  GORDON HAS JUST
PASSED THE 26C ISOTHERM AND WILL BE MOVING INTO PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER...BUT NOT COLD...WATERS AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  HIGH LATITUDE
HURRICANES...HOWEVER...DO TEND TO BE SOMEWHAT RESISTANT TO VERTICAL
SHEAR.  NONETHELESS...IT IS LIKELY THAT GORDON HAS REACHED ITS
SECOND PEAK IN INTENSITY AND SHOULD BEGIN SOME WEAKENING SHORTLY. 
THE INTENSITY PREDICTIONS ARE CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE AS
WELL AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. 

GORDON IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST 55 DEGREES AT 17 KT...WHICH IS TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A TURN TOWARD A DUE EASTWARD
TRACK IS ANTICIPATED BY ALL MODELS AS GORDON BECOMES STEERED BY THE
ZONAL WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE TRACK
FORECAST IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WITHOUT THE SLOWER
UKMET...AND NEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ANALYSES FROM THE FSU
CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS SUGGEST THAT ALL NUMERICAL MODELS
TRANSITION GORDON TO A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 24
HOURS.  DUE TO THE RATHER RESILIENT NATURE OF GORDON...THIS
TRANSITION IS DELAYED TO THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.  AFTER
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...THE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE SPLIT AS TO
WHETHER GORDON WILL REMAIN A SEPARATE EXTRATROPICAL STORM OR
WHETHER IT WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL STORM
SYSTEM TO ITS NORTH.  GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF GORDON...THE LATTER
SCENARIO IS FAVORED WITH ABSORPTION OCCURRING AROUND 60 TO 72
HOURS. 

ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS VERY NEAR OR OVER THE
AZORES IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT
GORDON WILL HAVE COMPLETED ITS TRANSITION INTO A POWERFUL
EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY THAT TIME.  HOWEVER...IF FUTURE FORECASTS
DELAY THIS TRANSITION...TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD
BE REQUIRED.  IN ANY EVENT...STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
AZORES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/1500Z 37.3N  47.6W    80 KT
 12HR VT     19/0000Z 38.1N  43.9W    70 KT
 24HR VT     19/1200Z 38.5N  37.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     20/0000Z 38.8N  30.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     20/1200Z 39.9N  21.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Sep-2006 14:55:02 UTC